Seismic fragility analysis of subway station structures considering statistical uncertainty of seismic demands

CUI Chunyi; XU Minze; XU Chengshun; ZHAO Jingtong; LIU Hailong; MENG Kun

doi:10.11779/CJGE20230980

Volume 47 Issue 3

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Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering > 2025 > 47(3): 453-462. > DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20230980

CUI Chunyi, XU Minze, XU Chengshun, ZHAO Jingtong, LIU Hailong, MENG Kun. Seismic fragility analysis of subway station structures considering statistical uncertainty of seismic demands[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2025, 47(3): 453-462. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE20230980

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Seismic fragility analysis of subway station structures considering statistical uncertainty of seismic demands

1.
Department of Civil Engineering, Dalian Maritime University, Dalian 116026, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Urban Security and Disaster Engineering, Beijing University of Technology, Beijing 100124, China
3.
College of Transportation, Shandong University of Science and Technology, Qingdao 266590, China

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Received Date: October 07, 2023
Available Online: October 11, 2024

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Abstract

Abstract

To avoid the epistemic uncertainty for seismic fragility of subway station structures caused by the incomplete seismic demand sample set, a novel procedure of seismic fragility analysis of subway station structures considering the statistical uncertainty of seismic demands is proposed. The limited set of seismic demand samples is firstly converted into a large sample problem based on the Bootstrap method. Then, the joint probability distribution model of statistical uncertainty variables is further established by combining the maximum entropy principle with the copula theory. On this basis, the variability of seismic fragility of subway station structures caused by the statistical uncertainty of seismic demands is further quantified, and the mean fragility curves and envelope fragility curves with certain confidence level are obtained. Finally, the Daikai subway station is taken as the prototype to investigate the influences of the statistical uncertainty. The results show that the seismic fragility of subway station structures derived from the limited seismic demand samples has significant variability which shows a tendency of increase and then decrease with the increase of the ground motion intensity. Moreover, the mean fragility curves and envelope fragility curves can effectively reflect the uncertainty of seismic fragility derived from the limited seismic demand samples, and have higher reliability. It may provide reference and guidance for the seismic performance and seismic risk assessment of subway station structures.
- subway station structure,
- seismic fragility,
- epistemic uncertainty,
- Bootstrap method,
- maximum entropy principle

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References (18)

References

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