基于人工智能神经网络的深水基础局部冲刷深度预测

    Prediction of local scour depth of deep-water foundations using AI-based neural network

    • 摘要: 冲刷是导致深水结构损毁的主要诱因之一。实际工程中,冲刷深度预测是工程设计中的重要环节。然而,由于冲刷发展的影响因素众多,尚缺乏完备的计算公式,实现其准确预测存在一定难度。针对这一现象,本研究基于深水基础局部冲刷经典室内试验的原始数据,提出了一种基于人工智能神经网络(ANN)的深水基础局部冲刷深度预测模型,分析了该模型的预测结果及其实际应用的可行性。首先通过前向传播算法建立了包含4个隐藏层的ANN预测模型;然后通过反向传播算法(ANN-BP)与Adam优化器优化了网络结构与参数,通过训练模型并在验证集上验证,选取了最优的模型参数;最后选取部分试验数据作为测试集进行模拟预测,与实际值相比较,进一步验证了预测模型的有效性,并针对影响因素开展了特征重要性分析。研究结果表明:该模型对训练样本的拟合效果较好,决定系数(R2)超过0.90,预测准确性较高;尽管测试数据样本较少,但对测试集的预测结果的决定系数也接近0.80,证明了模型的合理性与可靠性;在特征重要性分析方面,不同参数的特征重要性权重相当,佐证了试验本身的合理性。

       

      Abstract: Scour is one of the primary causes of deep-water structure damage, and scour depth prediction is critical in practical engineering design. However, accurate prediction remains challenging due to numerous influencing factors and lack of comprehensive calculation formulas. To solve this problem, this study proposes an artificial neural network (ANN) model for local deep-water foundation scour depth prediction based on raw data from classic laboratory tests, and verifies its prediction performance and practical feasibility. An ANN model with four hidden layers is constructed via forward propagation, then optimized by the BP algorithm combined with the Adam optimizer. Optimal parameters are selected through training and validation on the validation set. Partial experimental data are used as the test set for prediction, and the model's effectiveness is verified by comparing predicted and actual values. Feature importance analysis is also conducted for the influencing factors. Results show that the model fits training samples well with an R2 value over 0.90, indicating high accuracy. Despite limited test samples, the R2 of predictions on the test set is close to 0.80, proving the model's validity and reliability. Moreover, similar feature importance weights of different parameters corroborate the validity of the original tests.

       

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