利比亚两级土石坝溃决时序与灾害链效应研究

    Research on the breach sequence and disaster chain effects of the two-stage earth-rock dams in libya

    • 摘要: 2023年9月10日,飓风“丹尼尔”袭击利比亚东部并引发暴雨洪水,导致德尔纳河流域曼苏尔和比拉德两级土质心墙坝相继漫顶溃决。受实际监测资料匮乏限制,两座大坝的溃决时序与灾害链演化机制尚不明晰。本文建立了考虑土质心墙结构性破坏的梯级土石坝群溃决洪水模拟方法,对利比亚两级土石坝溃决致灾过程开展反演分析。通过洪痕与残余溃口形态的对比验证,明确了两级坝发生连溃的情况更符合实际;提出了梯级坝群连溃级联放大效应的新量化方法,探究了两坝溃决时序对溃决洪水级联放大效应与致灾后果的影响机制。结果表明,下游比拉德坝阻水作用是级联溃决洪水放大效应形成的核心原因,放大效应随其率先失效时间的增加而减弱;在致灾后果层面,级联放大效应对致灾淹没范围影响相对有限,而致灾后果严重性随级联放大倍率的提升呈递增趋势。本文通过对利比亚两级坝溃决事件的研究,深化了对梯级坝群溃决灾害链过程演化与致灾效应的认识,为风险评估与应急防控提供了技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: On September 10, 2023, Hurricane Daniel struck eastern Libya, producing extreme rainfall and catastrophic flooding that caused successive overtopping failures of the Mansour and Bilad dams in the Derna River Basin. Due to the unavailability of real-time monitoring data, the precise failure sequence of these dams and the evolution mechanism driving the resulting disaster chain remain uncertain. In this study, a cascading-failure flood simulation framework for earth-rock dams, which incorporates structural damage to clay cores, was developed for inversion analysis of the two-stage dam failures in Libya. Comparative validation against historical flood marks and residual breach morphology confirmed that the cascading-failure scenario aligned closely with the actual event. A new quantitative index describing the cascading amplification effect was proposed, and the influence of the failure sequence on both the amplification of successive dam-break floods and the resulting hazardous consequences was systematically examined. Results indicated that the water-impoundment effect of the downstream Bilad Dam was the dominant factor driving the cascading amplification, which decreased as the initial failure time of the Bilad Dam increased. In terms of hazardous consequences, while the cascading amplification effect had a limited impact on the overall inundation extent, the severity of downstream impacts increased proportionally with the cascading amplification factor. This case study enhances understanding of the evolution and hazard mechanisms of cascading dam-failure disaster chains and provides technical support for risk assessment, emergency response, and prevention strategies.

       

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