地质灾害链风险防控

    Coping with risks of geological hazard chains

    • 摘要: 地质灾害链是由原生灾害触发、多种次生灾害依次或并发形成的链式灾害系统,具有灾种转化、链式传播、时空放大等特征,难以预测,从而对重大工程和人民生命安全构成严峻挑战。以“机理认知—数值模拟—风险评估—智能防控”为主线阐述灾害链风险防控技术体系。以汶川地震地质灾害链为例,分析灾害链的成因、类型及时空演化规律,指出工程设计需充分考虑灾害链在其全生命周期内的影响。在数值模拟方面,研发了“降雨—滑坡—泥石流—洪水”灾害链全过程耦合模拟EDDA平台,建立了基于“热-水-力”耦合的冰川滑坡灾害链GMFA分析模型,实现从灾害启动、运动传播、侵蚀放大到灾种转换的灾害链全过程动态仿真。在风险评估方面,提出了HKUST-5步法全生命周期风险评估框架,开发了实时风险评估模块,包括区域性降雨滑坡定量风险评估系统PoLA及全球尺度地震滑坡风险实时预测系统QuakeSlide,为灾害应急响应提供实用工具。最后,提出了基于风险认知的工程设计决策方法、基于主动防御的灾害链断链理念和基于数字孪生的动态风险管理体系,为城市及山区重大工程的风险防控与应急管理提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Geological hazard chains, characterized by multi-hazard transformations, cascading effects, and spatiotemporal amplification, pose severe threats to societal and infrastructural safety. This study establishes a technical framework spanning "mechanism studies–numerical simulation–risk assessment–intelligent prevention". Using the Wenchuan earthquake hazard chains as an illustrative case, we analyze the triggers, types, multi-decade spatiotemporal evolution of hazard chains. The analysis underscores the need to integrate the full lifecycle of hazard chains into engineering design. In numerical simulation, the EDDA platform enables modeling of the complete "rainfall–landslide–debris flow–flood" cascade in rain-induced landslides, and the GMFA model addresses thermo-hydro-mechanical coupling and hazard transition in glacial landslide chains. These tools collectively support the simulation of the entire hazard-chain process, from initiation and movement to erosion-deposition and hazard transformation. In risk assessment, a five-phase framework is proposed to quantify the interactions and amplification effects in hazard chains. Two rapid–assessment tools were developed: the PoLA system for regional quantitative risk assessment of rainfall-induced landslides, and the QuakeSlide system for real-time risk forecasts of global earthquake-induced landslides. Finally, we propose a risk-informed engineering design approach, advocate the concept of hazard chain disruption based on proactive defense, and explore a dynamic emergency risk assessment protocol powered by digital twin technology. These advancements support risk mitigation, emergency management and engineering safety.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回