考虑地层随机性的盾构掘进参数智能预测方法研究

    Intelligent prediction of shield-tunneling parameters considering stratigraphic randomness.

    • 摘要: 本文基于岩土工程稀疏钻孔数据和耦合马尔科夫链模型,提出了考虑地层空间变异性的地层反演模型。在垂直方向上,基于钻孔数据构建竖直概率转移矩阵;考虑水平与垂直方向地层非统一倾角变化特性,联合粒子群优化算法,提出确定Walther参数组合的智能计算方法,将一维垂直地层条件合理扩展为二维地层条件,基于上述方法确定的地层条件可作为盾构掘进参数时序智能预测的输入参数。联合考虑临近当前开挖环的历史数据和当前开挖环的当前数据影响,提出了消除历史数据和当前数据间维度差异的特征融合方法,基于Bi-LSTM时序深度学习模型,建立融合当前信息的盾构掘进参数智能预测模型。以青岛某盾构区间为工程背景,分析了提出的优化耦合马尔科夫链模型的反演性能,与传统耦合马尔科夫链模型相比,所提模型的精度和效率分别提高了93%和79%。基于发展的优化耦合马尔科夫链模型和盾构掘进参数智能预测模型,在测试集上刀盘扭矩的R2值达到了0.82,表明所提模型具有较高的预测性能。所提方法框架融合地层反演和掘进参数智能时序预测,为盾构掘进全过程的施工效率和施工安全提供高质高效保障。

       

      Abstract: Based on sparse borehole data in geotechnical engineering and the coupled Markov chain model, this paper proposes a stratum inversion model that accounts for spatial variability of strata. In the vertical direction, a vertical probability transition matrix is constructed using borehole data. Considering the non-uniform dip angle variations of strata in both horizontal and vertical directions, an intelligent calculation method for determining Walther parameter combinations is introduced by integrating the particle swarm optimization algorithm. This approach reasonably extends one-dimensional vertical stratigraphic conditions to two-dimensional stratigraphic conditions. The resulting stratigraphic conditions determined through the above methods can serve as input parameters for the intelligent temporal prediction of shield tunneling parameters. By jointly considering the influence of historical data from adjacent excavation rings and current data from the ongoing excavation ring, a feature fusion method is proposed to eliminate dimensional differences between historical and current data. Based on a Bi-LSTM sequential deep learning model, an intelligent prediction model for shield tunneling parameters that integrates current information is established. Using a shield tunneling section in Qingdao as a case study, the inversion performance of the proposed optimized coupled Markov chain model is analyzed. Compared with the traditional coupled Markov chain model, the accuracy and efficiency of the proposed model are improved by 93% and 79%, respectively. Based on the developed optimized coupled Markov chain model and the intelligent prediction model for shield tunneling parameters, the R² value of the cutterhead torque reaches 0.82 on the test set, indicating high predictive performance. The proposed framework, which integrates stratum inversion and intelligent sequential prediction of tunneling parameters, provides high-quality and efficient support for both construction efficiency and safety throughout the shield tunneling process.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回