基于随机种子约束法的非均质边坡参数表征及失稳风险评估

    Characterization of Heterogeneous Slope Parameters and Failure Risk Assessment Using the Constraint Seed Method

    • 摘要: 土体参数具有天然的空间变异性与不确定性,其合理、准确的表征是提升边坡可靠度及风险评估精度的前提与基础。随机场理论为定量刻画土体参数的空间变异特征提供了有效工具,然而,传统完全随机场模型未充分融入现场勘察数据的空间位置信息,导致在实测点处的模拟值与观测值存在显著偏差,从而降低了边坡可靠度与风险评估结果的准确性。针对该问题,本文提出了随机种子约束法(Constraint Seed Method, CSM),利用已有场地数据构建土体参数的条件随机场。该方法通过在随机场生成阶段引入观测数据,对独立随机种子进行空间约束,实现对参数空间分布的精确控制。采用CSM生成的条件随机场具有两大优势:其一,确保测点处模拟值与实测值严格一致,提高模型与现场数据的吻合度;其二,在未观测区域,模拟结果与实测值在统计上呈现95%置信区间内的一致性,有效反映了参数的空间相关特征。通过两个边坡案例验证表明,CSM在计算精度与效率方面相较其他方法均表现出显著优势。通过融入钻孔数据,计算所得边坡后验安全系数的概率密度函数显著收敛,方差明显减小,失效概率与风险水平与仅基于先验信息的估计存在显著差异,更加接近实际工程状况,体现了实测数据对风险认知的修正作用。同时,随着钻孔数量的增加,边坡失效概率与风险值逐步收敛于真实水平。CSM具有简洁、稳健和高效的特点,可为勘察方案优化与边坡工程风险管控提供一种可操作的新思路。

       

      Abstract: Soil parameters exhibit inherent spatial variability and uncertainty, and their rational and accurate characterization is fundamental to improving the precision of slope reliability and risk assessments. Random field theory provides an effective framework for quantitatively capturing the spatial variability of soil properties. However, traditional unconditional random field (URF) models fail to fully incorporate the spatial location information of site investigation data, leading to significant discrepancies between simulated and observed values at measurement points, which further reduces the accuracy of slope reliability and risk evaluation. To address this issue, this study proposes a Constraint Seed Method(CSM) for constructing conditional random fields (CRFs) of soil parameters using available site investigation data. By introducing observational data at the random field generation stage, CSM imposes spatial constraints on independent random seeds, thereby achieving precise control of the spatial distribution of soil parameters. The CRFs generated by CSM possess two major advantages: (i) the simulated values at observation points strictly match the measured data, ensuring high consistency between the model and field measurements; and (ii) in unobserved regions, the simulated results exhibit statistical consistency with measured data within the 95% confidence interval, effectively reflecting the inherent spatial correlation of soil properties. Two representative slope cases are presented to validate the proposed method. Results demonstrate that CSM achieves significantly higher computational accuracy and efficiency than other methods. Incorporating borehole data causes the probability density function of the posterior factor of safety to converge, with a substantial reduction in variance. The estimated failure probability and risk differ markedly from those derived solely from prior information, providing a much closer approximation to actual engineering conditions and highlighting the corrective effect of site data on risk perception. Furthermore, as the number of boreholes increases, the estimated failure probability and risk values progressively converge toward their true levels. Owing to its simplicity, robustness, and high computational efficiency, CSM can offer a practical and effective approach for optimizing site investigation programs and supporting risk management of slope engineering projects.

       

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