基于蒙特卡洛随机失活与贝叶斯变分推断的土-膨润土渗透系数预测及不确定性分析

    Prediction and Uncertainty Analysis of Soil-Bentonite Permeability Using Monte Carlo Dropout and Bayesian Variational Inference

    • 摘要: 土-膨润土阻隔墙是防控地下污染扩散的重要工程技术。土-膨润土渗透系数是阻隔墙设计的关键指标,受基土与膨润土工程特性、固结应力等多个因素影响,工程设计时往往需通过大量不同配比试样的渗透试验来确定满足渗透系数要求的配比,对配比经验要求高且试验耗时长。本文基于自主测试与文献报道的160组样本数据,以基土级配、膨润土自由膨胀指数、膨润土掺量、固结应力8个因素为输入特征参数,建立了随机失活神经网络模型进行土-膨润土渗透系数的预测,并采用蒙特卡洛随机失活、贝叶斯变分推断两种方法进行不确定性分析。结果表明,这两种方法均有良好的渗透系数预测性能;蒙特卡洛随机失活法具有较高的分析效率,贝叶斯变分推断法可得到神经网络参数的后验分布。特征参数的排列重要性分析表明,膨润土自由膨胀指数和掺量与土-膨润土渗透系数的相关性较大,固结应力则相对较小。本文提出的预测方法可为土-膨润土配比设计提供定量指导,降低配比经验要求并减少配比测试量。

       

      Abstract: The soil-bentonite cutoff wall is a crucial engineering technique for controlling contaminant transport. The permeability of soil-bentonite is a key parameter of cutoff wall design, affected by multiple factors including the engineering properties of the base soil and bentonite, as well as consolidation stress. In engineering practice, a large number of permeability tests on mixtures with different proportions are often required to determine suitable mix ratios, which demands extensive empirical experience and involves considerable testing time. In this study, based on 160 sets of sample data from tests and literatures, a dropout neural network model was developed to predict the permeability of soil-bentonite mixtures, using eight factors as input features, including base soil gradation, bentonite free swelling index, content of bentonite and consolidation stress. Uncertainty analysis was then performed using two approaches: Monte Carlo dropout and Bayesian variational inference. Both methods demonstrate excellent permeability prediction performance. Monte Carlo dropout offers higher analysis efficiency, while Bayesian variational inference yields explicit posterior distributions of the network parameters. The feature importance analysis reveals that the free swelling index and content of bentonite exhibit stronger correlations with permeability, while consolidation stress exhibits a relatively weaker relationship. The proposed predictive frameworks offer quantitative guidance for soil–bentonite mixture design, reducing empirical experience and decreasing the amount of mixture testing.

       

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