基于半马尔可夫过程的盾构隧道震后性能恢复模型:构建与应用

    Post-earthquake performance recovery models for shield tunnels based on semi-Markov process: development and application

    • 摘要: 为考虑盾构隧道震后损伤状态恢复过程的复杂性与不确定性,提出了一种基于半马尔可夫过程的隧道性能恢复模型构建方法,并实现了抗震韧性的定量评估。首先,针对盾构隧道震后修复过程设计了详细调研问卷,面向全球范围内隧道设计、施工、检测、养护和加固领域的专家,获取了震后决策时间、修复措施选择及修复时间的专家意见,并通过概率密度函数拟合确定了决策时间与各修复措施持续时间的最佳概率分布;基于此,通过充分考虑盾构隧道结构损伤、决策时间及修复时间的不确定性,将盾构隧道震后修复表征为损伤状态转移的半马尔可夫过程,推导了震后性能恢复模型数学表达式;最后,将该方法应用于盾构隧道抗震韧性评价中,揭示了不同地震强度下隧道抗震韧性指标的演化规律。研究结果表明,盾构隧道损伤程度越严重,震后决策和修复时间越长;地震强度增大致盾构隧道韧性指标非线性衰减,呈现先加速后减缓的下降趋势,同时其不确定性显著增强。

       

      Abstract: To address the complexity and uncertainty inherent in the post-earthquake damage state recovery process of shield tunnels, a method for establishing performance recovery models based on semi-Markov processes is proposed, enabling quantitative assessment of seismic resilience. Initially, a detailed questionnaire was designed for the post-earthquake restoration process of shield tunnels, targeting experts worldwide in the fields of tunnel design, construction, inspection, maintenance and reinforcement, to obtain expert opinions on post-disaster decision-making time, selection of restoration tasks and restoration time. The optimal probability distributions for decision-making time and the duration of various repair tasks were determined through probability density function fitting. Based on this, the mathematical expression of the seismic resilience model was derived by fully considering the uncertainties in the structural damage, decision-making time, and restoration time, and characterizing the post-earthquake restoration of the shield tunnel as a semi-Markov process of damage state transitions. Finally, the method was applied to the seismic resilience evaluation of shield tunnels, revealing the evolutionary patterns of resilience indices across varying seismic intensities. The study demonstrates that the more severe the damage to shield tunnels, the longer the post-earthquake decision-making and restoration time. Additionally, the increasing seismic intensity leads to a nonlinearly decaying resilience index of shield tunnels, showing an initial acceleration and subsequent deceleration in degradation rate, with a significant increase in uncertainty.

       

    /

    返回文章
    返回