Abstract:
To address the complexity and uncertainty inherent in the post-earthquake damage state recovery process of shield tunnels, a method for establishing performance recovery models based on semi-Markov processes is proposed, enabling quantitative assessment of seismic resilience. Initially, a detailed questionnaire is designed for the post-earthquake restoration process of shield tunnels, targeting experts worldwide in the fields of tunnel design, construction, inspection, maintenance and reinforcement, to obtain expert opinions on post-disaster decision-making time, selection of restoration measures and restoration time. The optimal probability distributions for decision-making time and the duration of various repair measures are determined through probability density function fitting. Based on this, the mathematical expression of the seismic resilience model is derived by fully considering the uncertainties in the structural damage, decision-making time, and restoration time, and characterizing the post-earthquake restoration of shield tunnels as a semi-Markov process of damage state transitions. Finally, the method is applied to the seismic resilience evaluation of shield tunnels, revealing the evolutionary patterns of resilience indices across varying seismic intensities. The proposed post-earthquake performance recovery model captures the repair measures and their duration during the restoration process, which provides an effective pathway for seismic resilience assessment. With increasing seismic intensity, the resilience indices of shield tunnels exhibit nonlinear decay, showing an initial acceleration and subsequent deceleration in degradation rate, while their uncertainty becomes pronounced.