基于证据理论的岩爆预测

贾义鹏; 吕庆; 尚岳全; 支墨墨; 杜丽丽

doi:10.11779/CJGE201406013

基于证据理论的岩爆预测 English Version

浙江大学建筑工程学院,浙江杭州 310058

基金项目: 浙江省重大科技专项和优先主题资助项目（2010C13029）; 国家自然科学基金项目（41202216）; 中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金（2014QNA4020）; 浙江省教育厅科研项目（Y200909163）

详细信息

作者简介:
贾义鹏(1981- ),男,河北石家庄人,博士研究生,主要从事地下工程防灾减灾研究。E-mail: 870239264@qq.com。

通讯作者:
吕庆

中图分类号: TU456
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-06-05
- 发布日期: 2014-06-19

Rockburst prediction based on evidence theory

College of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou 310058, China

摘要

摘要: 岩爆是高地应力地区岩石开挖中的一种动力破坏现象,其机理复杂、影响因素众多,单一的评价指标无法准确描述岩爆发生的可能性。基于信息融合思想,提出一种能够综合考虑多指标共同作用的岩爆预测方法。该方法以证据理论为基础,以岩爆等级为识别框架,根据岩爆发生所需条件,选取最大切向应力与岩石单轴抗压强度比值、岩石单轴抗压强度与抗拉强度比值、岩石弹性能量指数为证据体,采用粗糙集理论客观确定了各证据体的确定信度,建立了基于证据理论的岩爆烈度预测模型。12组工程实例的预测结果表明该模型具有较好的预测精度。将该模型应用于苍岭隧道和锦屏二级水电站探硐岩爆预测,预测结果与实际情况完全吻合,说明该模型具有较好的实用性。
- 岩爆预测 /
- 信息融合 /
- 证据理论 /
- 粗糙集
Abstract: Rockburst is a dynamic breakage phenomenon existing in rock excavation in high in-situ stress zone, and its mechanism is complicated and the occurrence is influenced by many factors. It is almost impossible to make the prediction of its intensity through any single evaluating factor. Based on the idea of information fusion, a methodology is proposed for predicting the rockburst using the evidence theory, which can reflect the comprehensive influences of different factors. Three indices related to the occurrence condition of rockburst are taken into account as evidences in the proposed method, including the ratio of the maximum tangential stresses on cavern boundaries to the uniaxial compressive strength of rock, the ratio of the uniaxial compressive strength to the uniaxial tensile strength of rock and the elastic energy index of rock. The basic probability assignment functions are objectively constructed using the rough set theory. The predicted results of 12 practical cases show that the evidence theory method has relatively high accuracy. Finally, the model is applied to Cangling tunnel and the exploratory tunnel of Jinping II Hydropower Station. The results agree well with the field situations, which again illustrates the practicability of the proposed method.
- rockburst prediction /
- information fusion /
- evidence theory /
- rough set

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参考文献(19)

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