基于静力触探的土层自动划分方法与不确定性表征

曹子君; 郑硕; 李典庆; 区兆驹

doi:10.11779/CJGE201802015

基于静力触探的土层自动划分方法与不确定性表征 English Version

1.武汉大学水资源与水电工程科学国家重点实验室,湖北武汉 430072
2.利物浦大学风险与不确定性研究所,利物浦L69 3GH

基金项目: 国家重点基础研究发展计划（“973”计划）项目（2016YFC0800208）; 国家自然科学基金项目（51579190,51528901,51679174）

详细信息

作者简介:
曹子君(1987-),男,副教授,主要从事水利水电岩土工程可靠度分析与风险控制方面的研究。E-mail: zijuncao@whu.edu.cn。

中图分类号: TU413
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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2016-11-04
- 发布日期: 2018-02-24

Probabilistic characterization of underground stratigraphy and its uncertainty based on cone penetration test

1.State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China
2.Institute for Risk and Uncertainty, University of Liverpool, Liverpool L69 3GH, United Kingdom

摘要

摘要: 提出了一种基于I_c数据自动划分土层的贝叶斯方法,所提方法不仅能够在考虑I_c的空间变异性的条件下自动划分土层,识别最可能的土层界面,而且能够定量地表征土层界面的不确定性,为制定下一步勘探方案和岩土工程设计提供参考依据。本文采用基于子集模拟的贝叶斯更新方法（CBUS）求解贝叶斯方程,产生土层厚度的后验分布样本,并计算每个可能的土层数目对应的模型证据,确定最可能土层数和最可能的土层界面深度,计算界面深度的标准差作为土层界面不确定性的量化指标。最后,通过上海市轨道交通10号线伊犁站基坑开挖现场的I_c数据和模拟I_c数据说明了所提方法的有效性和正确性。结果表明：所提方法划分的土层合理地反映了不同土层I_c的统计特性。相邻土层I_c的统计特性差异越大,界面深度的标准差越小,识别出的土层界面越可靠,反之亦然。
- 静力触探 /
- 划分土层 /
- 土类指数 /
- 贝叶斯方法 /
- 不确定性
Abstract: A Bayesian framework is developed to probabilistically identify the underground stratigraphy based on I_c data. The proposed Bayesian framework identifies the most probable soil layer boundaries with the consideration of spatial variability of I_c and quantifies the uncertainties in the underground stratigraphy, which provides valuable information for making future site investigation plans and geotechnical designs. A subset simulation-based Bayesian updating algorithm (CBUS) is used to generate posterior samples of soil layer thicknesses and to calculate the model evidence for determining the most probable number of soil layers and the most probable soil layer boundaries, and the standard deviations of boundaries are calculated to quantify the uncertainty in soil layer boundaries. Finally, the proposed approach is illustrated and verified using the real I_c data obtained from a deep excavation site at Yili station of Shanghai No. 10 subway line and simulated I_c data from a virtual site. The results show that the underground stratigraphy identified by the proposed approach is based on the statistical similarity of I_c data. With the increase of statistical difference in I_c data within two adjacent soil layers, the standard deviation of the soil layer boundary between them decreases, and the soil layer boundary identified by the proposed approach is more reliable, and vice versa.
- cone penetration test /
- underground stratigraphy /
- soil behavior index /
- Bayesian method /
- uncertainty

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