基于全国水库大坝病害数据库的大坝安全隐患特征统计分析

    Statistical Analysis of Dam Safety Hazard Characteristics Based on a Nationwide Reservoir Dam Defect Database

    • 摘要: 受气候变化、强人类活动及工程老化等多种因素影响,病险问题一直是我国水库大坝安全管理重点。囿于大坝病险信息分散、非结构化存储难以利用,长期以来对大坝安全隐患特征的认识主要依赖专家经验和小范围工程统计,鲜见全国尺度统计分析。本文基于全国大坝基础信息库及近10年内鉴定出的2万余座病险水库大坝安全鉴定报告书,采用人工智能技术对隐患信息进行提取与结构化处理,初步构建了全国水库大坝病害数据库,从工程规模、建成时间、坝型、坝高、区位等维度对大坝病害进行统计分析,初步分析了全国水库大坝安全隐患特征,并提出相应对策建议。结果表明,渗流和结构安全隐患占病险主导地位;防洪安全隐患在中小型水库,尤其是松辽河、黄河流域等北方区域的小型水库中较为显著;抗震安全隐患在海河、西南诸河等流域相对集中;金属结构安全隐患在大中型水库中更为突出。本研究可为我国水库大坝安全管理和病险水库除险加固决策及长效机制建设提供技术支撑。

       

      Abstract: Under the combined effects of climate change, intensified human activities, and structural aging, dam safety deficiencies have long been a major concern in reservoir safety management in China. The dispersed and unstructured nature of dam defect information, limits its effective utilization. Existing understanding of dam safety hazards has mainly relied on expert judgment and limited engineering statistics, while nationwide quantitative analyses remain scarce. In this study, based on national dam inventory database and safety assessment reports of more than 20,000 deficient reservoir dams identified over the past decade, artificial intelligence techniques were used to extract and structure hazard information, resulting in the preliminary construction of a nationwide reservoir dam defect database. Statistical analyses were conducted from the perspectives of engineering scale, construction time, dam type, dam height, and geographic location to analyze dam safety hazard characteristics at the national scale, and corresponding countermeasures were proposed. The results show that seepage-related and structural safety issues are the two most prominent hazard types. Flood control deficiencies are most prominent in medium and small reservoirs, particularly for small reservoirs in northern regions such as the Songliao and Yellow River basins. Seismic safety hazards are relatively concentrated in the Haihe and Southwest River basins. Metal structure problems are more evident in large and medium reservoirs. The findings provide technical support for dam safety management, defective reservoirs rehabilitation decision-making and the establishment of a long-term governance mechanism.

       

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