长输油气管道地震易损性分析及震后输送功能评估

    Seismic fragility analysis and post-earthquake transport function assessment of long-distance oil and gas pipelines

    • 摘要: 为合理评估埋地管道的震后输送功能,本文基于易损性分析构建了一套埋地管道震后输送功能的评估方法。该方法基于Abaqus有限元软件建立埋地腐蚀管道模型,模拟地震作用下的非线性响应过程以刻画物理损伤特征。通过引入权重系数进行量化,构建“损伤状态-功能状态”的映射关系,将地震易损性分析结果转化为统一的功能损失指标,实现了埋地管道从物理损伤到功能水平的定量转化。结果表明:随着地震动强度的增加,管道超越概率与功能损失均呈非线性上升趋势,其中脉冲型地震动因能量集中,导致管道在50a龄期内功能损失较无脉冲地震动额外增加了1.14%;服役龄期的延长导致埋地管道在地震作用下的功能进一步退化,使其在较低地震强度下即进入功能中度丧失状态,在Ⅸ度设防区服役40a以上的管道,其功能损失曲线出现明显拐点,进入加速劣化阶段。本文所提出的评估方法能快速预测地震对管道输送功能的影响,为震后精准部署预案提供关键决策依据。

       

      Abstract: This paper aims to establish an evaluation methodology for the post-earthquake transport function of buried pipelines based on fragility analysis to facilitate a rational assessment of the functional states. The approach utilizes Abaqus finite element software to model buried corroded pipelines, simulating their nonlinear response process under seismic action to characterize physical damage. By introducing weighting coefficients for quantification, a mapping relationship between "damage states" and "functional states" is established, which converts the results of seismic fragility analysis into a unified index of functional loss. This achieves a quantitative transformation from physical damage to functional performance. The results show that both the pipeline exceedance probability and the functional loss exhibit a non-linear increasing trend with increasing ground motion intensity. Pulse-like ground motions, due to their concentrated energy, lead to an additional 1.14% functional loss over a 50-year service life compared to non-pulse motions. The extension of service life leads to further degradation of the functionality of buried pipelines under seismic action, causing them to enter a state of moderate functional loss at relatively low ground motion intensities. For pipelines serving over 40 years in seismic fortification intensity zone IX, a distinct inflection point appears in the functional loss curve, marking the onset of an accelerated deterioration stage. The assessment method proposed in this paper enables rapid prediction of the impact of earthquakes on pipeline transport function, thereby providing a critical decision-making basis for the informed post-earthquake deployment of emergency plans.

       

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