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Volume 34 Issue 12
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TANG Xiao-song, LI Dian-qing, ZHOU Chuang-bing, PHOON Kok-kwang. Modeling dependence between shear strength parameters using Copulas and its effect on slope reliability[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2012, 34(12): 2284-2291.
Citation: TANG Xiao-song, LI Dian-qing, ZHOU Chuang-bing, PHOON Kok-kwang. Modeling dependence between shear strength parameters using Copulas and its effect on slope reliability[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2012, 34(12): 2284-2291.
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Modeling dependence between shear strength parameters using Copulas and its effect on slope reliability

  • 1. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    2. Key Laboratory of Rock Mechanics in Hydraulic Structural Engineering, Ministry of Education, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China;
    3. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, National University of Singapore, 117576, Singapore

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  • Received Date: April 22, 2012
  • Published Date: December 24, 2012
    Graphical Abstract
    • Abstract
  • The influence of Copulas for modeling dependence between shear strength parameters on slope reliability is investigated. Firstly, four data sets of shear strength parameters in hydropower projects are collected. Then, the Akaike information criterion is adopted for identifying the best-fit Copula underlying the collected shear strength parameters. The formulae for probability of failure of an infinite slope using the direct integration are derived. Finally, an example of reliability analysis for the infinite slope is presented to demonstrate the influence of Copulas on the probability of slope failure. The results indicate that the Copulas have a significant influence on the probability of slope failure. The probabilities of slope failure produced by different Copulas may differ considerably. Such difference increases with increasing slope factor of safety (or decreasing probability of slope failure), increasing negative dependence between cohesion and internal friction angle and decreasing coefficient of variation of shear strength parameters. In addition, the Gaussian Copula is not the best-fit one for modeling the dependence structure underlying the shear strength parameters. If the Gaussian Copula is adopted, the probability of slope failure will be underestimated significantly. It is emphasized that the Gaussian Copula should not be adopted out of expedience without proper validation to model the dependence between the shear strength parameters.
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    • References (16)
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