Stochastic back analysis of material parameters of tailings dams using Bayesian updating approach

JIANG Shui-hua; ZHU Ming-ming; ZENG Shao-hui; HUANG Jin-song; YANG Zhi-gang; ZHOU Chuang-bing

doi:10.11779/CJGE2020S2014

Volume 42 Issue S2

Turn off MathJax

Article Contents

Abstract

References

Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering > 2020 > 42(S2): 77-82. > DOI: 10.11779/CJGE2020S2014

JIANG Shui-hua, ZHU Ming-ming, ZENG Shao-hui, HUANG Jin-song, YANG Zhi-gang, ZHOU Chuang-bing. Stochastic back analysis of material parameters of tailings dams using Bayesian updating approach[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2020, 42(S2): 77-82. DOI: 10.11779/CJGE2020S2014

Citation:

PDF (717 KB)

Stochastic back analysis of material parameters of tailings dams using Bayesian updating approach

JIANG Shui-hua^{1, 2,},
ZHU Ming-ming^{1, 2},
ZENG Shao-hui^{1, 2},
HUANG Jin-song^{1, 2},
YANG Zhi-gang^1, ,,
ZHOU Chuang-bing^{1, 2}

1.
School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China
2.
Key Laboratory of Tailings Reservoir Engineering Safety of Jiangxi Province, Nanchang 330031, China

More Information

Received Date: August 31, 2020
Available Online: December 07, 2022

Graphical Abstract

Abstract

Abstract

To obtain accurate values of the material parameters of tailings dams based on the limited data, a stochastic back analysis approach considering the uncertainties of the material parameters of tailings dams is proposed under the framework of Bayesian updating and finite element analysis. To improve the computational efficiency of back analysis, a polynomial chaos expansion is adopted to replace the implicit function between the displacements of tailing dams at the representative monitoring points and uncertain input parameters. A real tailings dam is taken as an example to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach for stochastic back analysis of parameters of multi-layered tailings materials based on the monitoring data of displacements. The results indicate that the proposed approach can effectively reduce the estimation in the uncertainties of the material parameters of tailings dams, accurately infer the probability distributions of the material parameters, and identify the influence degree of different material parameters (e.g., elastic modulus, Poisson’s ratio) on the deformation of the tailings dams.
- Key words: tailings dam,
- stochastic back analysis,
- Bayesian approach,
- uncertainty,
- monitoring data

FullText(HTML)

References (18)

References

[1]	李康宏, 邓祥辉, 何萌, 等. 基于钻孔资料的某尾矿坝渗透系数反演分析有限元模型建立[J]. 岩石力学与工程学报, 2004, 23(增刊1): 4329-4332. LI Kang-hong, DEGN Xiang-hui, HE Meng. et al. The finite element model of permeability inversion analysis for a tailings dam based on borehole data is established[J]. Chinese Journal of Rock Mechanics and Engineering, 2004, 23(S1): 4329-4332. (in Chinese)
[2]	林旭, 茆福文, 张巍, 等. 尾矿坝初始地应力反演研究[J]. 水利技术监督, 2020(1): 198-201. LING Xu, MAO Fu-wen, ZHANG Wei. Inversion study on initial geostress of tailings dam[J]. Technical Supervision in Water Resources, 2020(1): 198-201. (in Chinese)
[3]	徐维生, 柴军瑞, 李娟娟, 等. 尾矿库坝体加高方案排水分析[J]. 水土保持通报, 2010, 30(5): 226-228. XU Wei-sheng, CAI Jun-rui, LI Juan-juan, et al. Drainage analysis of dam body elevation scheme for tailings pond[J]. Bulletin of Soil and Water Conservation, 2010, 30(5): 226-228. (in Chinese)
[4]	任赞松. 尾矿库坝体稳定性与溃坝危险性评价[D]. 成都: 成都理工大学, 2018. REN Zan-song. Assessment of the Stability of Tailings Dam and the Risk of Dam Failure[D]. Chengdu: Chengdu University of Technology, 2018. (in Chinese)
[5]	李彪. 尹庄新水尾矿库加高扩容坝体三维渗流及控制技术研究[D]. 北京: 北方工业大学, 2019. LI Biao. Study on Three-dimensional Seepage and Control Technology of Heightened and Expanded Dam Body of Yinzhuang Xinshui Tailings Reservoir[D]. Beijing: North China University of Technology, 2019. (in Chinese)
[6]	BHARAT T V, SHARMA J. Prediction of compression and permeability characteristics of mine tailings using natural computation and large-strain consolidation framework[C]//Geo-Frontiers 2011: Advances in Geotechnical Engineering, 2011.
[7]	金佳旭. 地震荷载作用下上游式尾矿库动力特性研究[D]. 沈阳: 东北大学, 2013. JIN Jia-xu. Research on Dynamic Characteristics of Upstream Tailings Under Earthquake Load[D]. Shenyang: Northeastern University, 2013. (in Chinese)
[8]	EL-RAMLY H, MORGENSTERN N R, CRUDEN D M. Probabilistic stability analysis of a tailings dyke on presheared clay shale[J]. Canadian Geotechnical Journal, 2003, 40(1): 192-208. doi: 10.1139/t02-095
[9]	DAS T, HEGDE A. A comparative deterministic and probabilistic stability analysis of rock-fill tailing dam[C]//Advances in Computer Methods and Geomechanics. Lecture Notes in Civil Engineering, Vol 55, 2020, Singapore.
[10]	STRAUB D, PAPAIOANNOU I. Bayesian updating with structural reliability methods[J]. Journal of Engineering Mechanics, 2015, 141(3): 04014134. doi: 10.1061/(ASCE)EM.1943-7889.0000839
[11]	蒋水华, 李典庆. 边坡可靠度更新的贝叶斯方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2019. JIANG Shui-hua, LI Dian-qing. Bayesian Approach for Updating of Slope Reliability[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2019. (in Chinese)
[12]	AU S K, BECK J L. Estimation of small failure probabilities in high dimensions by subset simulation[J]. Probabilistic Engineering Mechanics, 2001, 16(4): 263-277. doi: 10.1016/S0266-8920(01)00019-4
[13]	DIAZDELAO F A, GARBUNO-Inigo A, AU S K, et al. Bayesian updating and model class selection with Subset Simulation[J]. Computer Methods in Applied Mechanics and Engineering, 2017, 317: 1102-1121. doi: 10.1016/j.cma.2017.01.006
[14]	PAPAIOANNOU I, STRAUB D. Reliability updating in geotechnical engineering including spatial variability of soil[J]. Computers and Geotechnics, 2012, 42: 44-51. doi: 10.1016/j.compgeo.2011.12.004
[15]	曹荣国. 大黑山尾矿坝渗流与稳定性分析研究[D]. 长春: 吉林大学, 2017. CAO Guo-rong. The Study and Analysis of Seepage and Stability About Tailings Dam in Daheishan[D]. Changchun: Jilin University, 2017. (in Chinese)
[16]	中仿科技公司. 岩土应力变形分析软件SIGMA/W用户指南[M]. 北京: 冶金工业出版社, 2011. CnTech. SIGMA/W User Guide for Geotechnical Stress and Deformation Analysis Software[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2019. (in Chinese)
[17]	李典庆, 蒋水华. 边坡可靠度非侵入式随机分析方法[M]. 北京: 科学出版社, 2016. LI Dian-qing, JIANG Shui-hua. Non-Invasive Stochastic Analysis Method for Slope Reliability[M]. Beijing: Science Press, 2019. (in Chinese)
[18]	MIRO S, KÖNIG M, HARTMANN D, et al. A probabilistic analysis of subsoil parameters uncertainty impacts on tunnel-induced ground movements with a back-analysis study[J]. Computers and Geotechnics, 2015, 68: 38-53. doi: 10.1016/j.compgeo.2015.03.012