土坡在非常条件下稳定分析的概率方法

土坡在非常条件下稳定分析的概率方法 English Version

摘要: 概率论在土工工程中的应用,作为一个新的土力学分支,正日益受到重视。本文是关于土坡在有渗透水流出并经受地震荷载作用下概率方法校核稳定性的研究。文中以常用的在地震条件下土坡稳定计算的公式为基础,推导了其概率模式,并以一阶二次矩法导出了各随机变量的期望和方差的表达式。文中比较详细地讨论了随机变量的相关性以及校正系数N（M_R）的问题。最后以一个实际土坡为例进行了计算。
- 随机变量 /
- 稳定分析 /
- 概率方法 /
- 破坏概率 /
- 校正系数 /
- 相关系数 /
- 安全系数 /
- 园弧滑动 /
- 抗滑力矩 /
- 滑动力矩
Abstract: The application of probability methods to earthwork engineering, which is a new subfield in Soil Mechanics, has received increasing attention. This paper is dealing with the probability method of stability analysis for soil slope under the conditions of seepage flow and seismic loading.Based on the conventional calculation fomula of slope stability analysis, the probability model for such analysis has been derived. The expressions of mean and variance of random variables have also been obtained using the First-order second-moment method. The correlations between random variables are discussed rather in detail and the correction coefficient N(MR) as well.Finally, a real case, as an example, is taken to calculate the failure probability using this probability model.