地震液化侧向变形超过指定阈值的Probit模型初探

刘芳; 李震

地震液化侧向变形超过指定阈值的Probit模型初探 English Version

刘芳^{1, 2},
李震^{1, 2}

1. 同济大学地下建筑与工程系，上海 200092；2. 同济大学岩土及地下工程教育部重点实验室，上海 200092

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金青年项目（41102173）；教育部博士学科点专项科研基金项目（20100072120006）；教育部留学回国人员科研启动基金项目

详细信息

作者简介:
刘芳(1978- )，女，广东河源人，博士，讲师，主要从事砂土地震液化、天然气水合物力学性质测试及数值分析等方面的研究。E-mail: liufang@tongji.edu.cn。

中图分类号: TU470
计量
- 文章访问数: 0390
- HTML全文浏览量: 0
- PDF下载量: 0440
出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2013-03-01
- 发布日期: 2013-07-18

Probit model for exceedance of liquefaction-induced lateral deformation over a given threshold value due to earthquakes

LIU Fang^{1, 2},
LI Zhen^{1, 2}

1. Department of Geotechnical Engineering, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China; 2. Key Laboratory of Geotechnical and Underground Engineering of Ministry of Education, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092, China

摘要

摘要: 基于地震液化侧向变形实测数据，通过数据统计分析了影响液化侧向变形的关键因素，并采用Probit建模方法，初步建立了地震液化侧向变形超过特定阈值的概率模型，并将模型预测结果与两个典型案例的实测数据进行了对比。该预测模型可以考虑震级、震距、场地坡度和液化土层厚度对液化侧向变形发生概率的影响。预测结果与实测数据的对比表明模型能够较好地预测发生大变形的概率，但对于小变形情况，模型预测结果偏保守。
- 地震液化 /
- 侧向变形 /
- 概率模型
Abstract: The major factors influencing the liquefaction-induced lateral deformation are identified using statistical analysis based on post-earthquake reconnaissance data collected from historical earthquakes. A simple probability model is proposed within the framework of the Probit model for predicting the likelihood of liquefaction-induced deformation exceeding a given threshold value. The model prediction is compared with the historical data collected from two selected destructive earthquakes. The proposed model relates the probability to the earthquake moment, epicenter distance, slope of the ground surface and accumulated thickness of liquefiable soils. The comparison between the prediction and the field data indicates that the proposed model performs well particularly in cases of large displacements, while it provides a conservative estimate in cases of small displacements.
- earthquake-induced liquefaction /
- lateral displacement /
- probabilistic model

HTML全文

参考文献(1)

张建民. 砂土动力学若干基本理论探究[J]. (岩土工程学报), 2012, 34(1): 1-50.(ZHANG Jian-min,New advances in basic theories of sand dynamics[J]. New advances in basic theories of sand dynamics[J]. Chinese Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 2012, 34(1): 1-50. (in Chinese))
HAMADA M,YASUDA S,ISOYAMA R,et al. Study on liquefaction induced permanent ground displacement[M]. Tokyo: Association for the Development of Earthquake Prediction, 1986.
YOUD T L,PERKINS D M. Mapping of liquefaction severity index[J]. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 1987, 11: 1374-1392.
BARTLETT S F,YOUD T L. Empirical prediction of liquefaction-induced lateral spread[J]. Journal of Geotechnical Engineering, 1995, 121(4): 316-329.
YOUD T L,BARTLETT S F,HANSEN C M. Revised Multilinear regression equations for prediction of lateral spread displacement[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2002, 128(12): 1007-1017.
RAUCH F,JAMES R. EPOLLS Model for predicting average displacements on lateral spreads[J]. Journal of Geotechnical and Geoenvironmental Engineering, 2002, 126(4): 360-371.
BARDET J P,TOBITA T,MACE N,HU J. Regional modeling of liquefaction-induced ground deformation[J]. Earthquake Spectra, 2002, 18(1): 19-46.
ZHANG J,ZHAO J X. Empirical models for estimating liquefaction-induced lateral spread displacement[J]. Soil Dynamics and Earthquake Engineering, 2005, 25: 439-450.
BARDET J P,LIU F. Motions of gently sloping ground during earthquake[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface, 2009, 114, doi=10.1029/2008JF001107.

施引文献

资源附件(0)

计量

文章访问数:
HTML全文浏览量: 0
PDF下载量:
被引次数: 0

地震液化侧向变形超过指定阈值的Probit模型初探 English Version

作者简介: 刘 芳(1978- )，女，广东河源人，博士，讲师，主要从事砂土地震液化、天然气水合物力学性质测试及数值分析等方面的研究。E-mail: liufang@tongji.edu.cn。

计量

出版历程

Probit model for exceedance of liquefaction-induced lateral deformation over a given threshold value due to earthquakes

计量

出版历程

目录

作者简介:
刘芳(1978- )，女，广东河源人，博士，讲师，主要从事砂土地震液化、天然气水合物力学性质测试及数值分析等方面的研究。E-mail: liufang@tongji.edu.cn。