考虑参数空间变异性的失稳边坡参数概率反分析

蒋水华; 魏博文; 黄劲松

doi:10.11779/CJGE201703011

考虑参数空间变异性的失稳边坡参数概率反分析 English Version

南昌大学建筑工程学院,江西南昌 330031

基金项目: 国家自然科学基金项目（51509125,51409139）; 江西省教育厅科学技术研究项目（GJJ150033）; 长江科学院开发研究基金项目(CKWV2015222/KY)

详细信息

作者简介:
蒋水华(1987- ),男,江西九江人,博士,讲师,主要从事岩土工程可靠度和风险控制方面的研究。E-mail: sjiangaa@ncu.edu.cn。

通讯作者:
魏博文，E-mail：bwwei@ncu.edu.cn

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出版历程
- 收稿日期: 2015-12-13
- 发布日期: 2017-04-24

Probabilistic back analysis of slope failure considering spatial variability of soil properties

School of Civil Engineering and Architecture, Nanchang University, Nanchang 330031, China

摘要

摘要: 概率反分析能够有效地考虑岩土体参数不确定性并融合现场监测数据和观测信息等更新岩土体参数统计特征,进而使得边坡稳定性评价更为符合客观工程实际,然而目前参数概率反分析几乎没有考虑参数固有空间变异性的影响。结合多重响应面和子集模拟提出了考虑岩土体参数空间变异性的边坡参数概率反分析方法,并以芝加哥国会街切坡为例,融合边坡失稳和滑动面入滑点与出滑点的大致位置这两个现场观测信息,概率反分析得到边坡不排水抗剪强度参数的后验统计特征。结果表明：本文提出方法可以有效地解决考虑参数空间变异性的低概率水平边坡参数概率反分析问题,具有较高的计算效率。子集模拟中每层随机样本数目对计算结果具有重要的影响,常用的500组样本点难以获得满意的计算结果。此外,土体参数空间变异性对概率反分析计算结果具有重要的影响,考虑参数空间变异性边坡参数由平稳随机场更新为非平稳随机场,与工程实际相符,然而忽略参数空间变异性更新后的参数仍服从平稳分布。
- 边坡 /
- 空间变异性 /
- 贝叶斯更新 /
- 概率反分析 /
- 响应面 /
- 子集模拟
Abstract: The statistics of uncertain rock and soil parameters can be updated with the information from different sources such as in-situ measurements and field observations via probabilistic back analysis, which can be further used for more realistic slope stability assessment. However, the inherent spatial variability of soil properties is almost not incorporated in the current probabilistic back analyses. This paper proposes an efficient approach by integrating multiple response-surface with subset simulation for probabilistic back analysis of slope failure in spatially variable soils. The Congress Street cut in Chicago with two important field observations including slope failure and approximate entry and exit regions of potential slip surfaces is taken as an example, and the posterior statistics of undrained shear strengths in three clay layers are estimated using the proposed approach. The results indicate the proposed approach can effectively back-analyze the posterior statistics of spatially varying soil properties at low-probability levels. The number of samples (N_l) in each intermediate step of subset simulation has an important effect on the posterior statistics of soil parameters, and the common choice of N_l = 500 cannot yield satisfactory results in general. In addition, the spatial variability of soil properties affects the posterior statistics of soil parameters significantly. The updated soil parameters follow non-stationary distributions in the slope profile when the spatial variability of soil properties is considered, which is in good accordance with geotechnical practice, while they still follow stationary distributions if the spatial variability of soil properties is ignored.
- soil slope /
- spatial variability /
- Bayesian updating /
- probabilistic back analysis /
- response surface /
- subset simulation

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参考文献(39)

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